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An in depth analysis of why Weed should not be legalized

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Author Topic: An in depth analysis of why Weed should not be legalized  (Read 2310 times)
dudedudedude for Moderator
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« on: August 03, 2012, 03:14:18 pm »

I know we had a long discussion on this previously, but I wasn't able to fully convey the points I wanted to get across, and I'm bored as shit at work waiting for a phone call, so I wanted to try this again. I will also put out a breakdown of the best possible way to sell and regulate marijuana should it become legal, even though I advise against it.

I'll start off by saying I'm not against the plant itself. I do not believe that it is any more harmful than alcohol or tobacco which are currently legal. I do however believe, that legalizing marijuana will not provide any money for the economy, even if it is taxed, and distributed like cigarettes and alcohol. The opportunity cost of legalizing it is far too high and simply not feasible at this point in time.

Tax and Distribution

There's a few ways this can be done. Option one involves a store dedicated simply to selling marijuana and marijuana products, similar to LCBO and SAQ stores found in Ontario and Quebec that liquor. These are crown corporations and the government can charge anything the want, so long as the demand is there, as they are the only corporation in the business. This works well. It is taxed severely, and it is very profitable. Consider a bottle of Bacardi Superior White Rum. I paid $15 duty free for a 40 oz bottle coming home from Belgium, where as I am charged $36 for a 40 oz bottle at an LCBO store, a huge mark up in price. Unfortunately, I am incapable of distilling my own rum, and of course, very few people are capable of doing so at home. This is a very important distinction.

Another option involves something similar to the Netherlands, where people are able to purchase the product for consumption in coffee shops. This however, leads to a magnitude of problems. What happens if you purchase marijuana in the coffee shop, and leave? Is that a punishable offence? Are we going to restrict the smoking of weed to these areas, and these areas only?

A third option would be allow people to buy seeds, and grow their own, but taxing personal supplies would be virtually impossible, and is therefore, not feasible.  

Consumption and Public Use

One of the biggest issues is whether or not consumption in non-designated areas will be legal. Can you carry it with you? If so, possession is fine, and people can bring it wherever they choose. Public intoxication, in layman's terms, is a law created to prevent overly intoxicated individuals from disrupting the peace in a public area. It's not the most strictly enforced rule, but it exists. How would this work for weed? (Preparing for Stoners to get all mad saying you can't get that messed up on weed) We need to define this level. Walking across the street while ripped can be dangerous in the same way that being drunk and crossing the street can be.

Driving and Marijuana Use  

A simple topic, but important none the less. We've all heard people talk about how they can drive just fine after smoking, but weed still impairs you mental abilities for a certain period of time. With this in mind, it will need to be enforced, in the same way that drinking and driving is enforced. Everyone knows we shouldn't drink and drive, but some idiots still feel the need to do so, and it will undoubtedly have with weed as well.

There is however a major difference. Alcohol levels can be tested quickly and easily, while THC levels can not, without a drug test, which are more time consuming than a breathalyser test.

Price

Back to the LCBO mark up price. Not all of that mark up comes simply from tax, as the LCBO has expenses as well. I bought a case of beer, which I had to pay duty on, as I was only allowed one bottle, and it was 65% tax. Are we going to tax weed at the same level as we tax alcohol and tobacco products?

Before we can tax it, we need to produce it. Mass producing the product is the most likely option, and it would lower production costs. The issue is, who is allowed to produce it? Is anyone able to produce it, so long as they receive a government permit? A bidding war between companies is another option. Whomever is able to produce it for the lowest price, gets a contract. This could be expanded to allow the different types of marijuana.  

The current price for a gram of weed usually runs around $10-$12 in North America, and more expensive depending on the speciality types. Let's assume a 65% tax rate on the product. A company would have to be able to able to sell one gram of weed to coffee shops or controlled stores for less than $7 to match the current price. We must also include the expenses of the store.

Let's consider what a company would need to produce. Every company has expenses. Keep in mind $7 is the asking price, but since it would also come at the cost of not performing an illegal activity, people might be willing to pay more, upwards of $20-$30 a gram. However, at a certain point, the cost of weed could exceed the demand and the illegal market could thrive. What is this magical point where people stop caring about the consequences? We don't know, but it can be discovered. Market research is an amazing tool, but frankly, it's not worth doing on a large scale for a post like this. I will ask those of WU though, how much they would be willing to spend on 1 gram of legalized marijuana produced by a company.

That leaves us with:

X = Cost of Goods Manufactured (Expenses and Profitable for the company, and yes I realize that's not a manufacturing cost, but I'm simplifying it.)
Y = Price people are willing to pay

We will also assume that the stores selling these products need to pay there expenses at the same rate as a liquor store would. That's currently about 75% of the price of the product.

Price of Marijuana Sold = (X * 1.65* 1.75)

This number can not exceed Y, and if it does,

If people are willing to pay $20 a gram for example, the costs of goods manufactured could reach $7 without issue. That $7 however must include all of the companies expenses and their profit. Can companies produce weed for $7 a gram all expenses in and still make enough money to stay in business? I don't know, and I'm not sure any of us truly know that answer. It could be determined, and I believe it's crucial that it is before weed is legalized.

The Market

Sit down class, it's time for a micro-economics lesson.

Everyone has disposable income, but the amount each one of us has varies. Even without outlining a budget, you will find that most people spend X% on rent, Y% on food and Z% on recreation on an individual basis, assuming no major changes in income. There are other categories, but again, I don't want to get too complicated People can't borrow from X and Y, because those are essential. This means that people can only spend so much on recreation. However, people can interchange the products within their own categories. If apples are on sale, some people might choose them over bananas, effectively making them, substitute products. This isn't a great example, but I think you get the idea.

The problem is, recreational funds are all substitute products. Weed isn't it's on percentages. It's reliant on the budget for recreational goods. Any money taken out of the recreational budget to purchase weed comes at the expense of other recreational activities which may include tobacco, alcohol, leisure activities or sports.

In other words, it does not benefit the economy. You have two cups, one with water, and another without. You poor the water into the other cup. You are still left with the same amount of water, but just moving it to a new location. Seeing as weed is not legal in other countries, we would be unable to profit from exports. Instead of individual dealers which we currently have profiting from this industry, you have corporations profiting and the government receiving tax dollars to distribute and manage. Seeing as we are designed to be primarily a free market economy, this isn't ideal.

Unauthorized Possession and Use  

I think we can pretty well ignore the idea that everyone would be able to grow their own, as it would be impossible to tax and control. So now, we have controlled environments where this can be purchased. There's an issue.

Story time.

What happens if John Doe decides the controlled prices are too high and he can grow his own, in the same way that people do now? He hides it well, and he is not caught for growing, as growing is still illegal. He leaves his house and he is carrying 5 grams of weed, when a cop stops him and finds the 5 grams, but the cop is unable to prove that he grew the weed himself. John is let go, and he continues on with his day as a cowboy.

There are very few ways to stop this from happening.

I'd like to hear what your solution to this issue would be, as it could be a major issue. Individual packaging is an option, where people are able to purchase pre-made joints, bowls, and buckets. The packaging would have to be designed in a way that it can not reproduced or re-used, which is an added expense to the companies.

Enforcement

Even though possession and personal use would be legal, there is still some enforcement to be done. A lot of the time and money spent on charging people with possession would disappear, but not completely, as legalized products do need enforcement.

Age

A reasonable debate can formed on this alone. I am an individual who believes the drinking age should be reduced to 18 and possibly lower, but it is clear the government doesn't feel that way. So, what would the age for marijuana use be? Keep in mind, many high school students and people under the age of 21 smoke weed, and would most likely to continue to do so if it was legalized. This adds to the enforcement cost described above.

Health Risk

I'll try to leave this one up to you guys. I'm not a medical professional nor have I studied the short and long term effects of **** use. While I agree it's not any worse than alcohol or tobacco health wise, it's still not "good" for you.

Theoretical Proposal

I am clearly not in favour of it being legalized, but should it become legal, there's a few things we can do to minimize the damage.

1. Sell it in controlled stores only - No coffeeshops or anything like that. People will purchase it from these stores and pay a ton of tax.

2. Only one company is allowed to produce - This company will be a crown corporation.

3. Zero tolerance on smoking and driving - Eliminate the needs for a baseline measure.

4. Individualized packaging - Prevents the use of unauthorized marijuana.

5. No advertising of the product - Follows the same rules as cigarettes.

6. No one under the age of 18 is allowed to smoke - Once you can serve, you can make your own decisions.

7. Excessive punishment for those caught growing or distributing - Feel the same way about most laws. The more serious the punishment, the less likely people are to commit it.

8. No smoking in public - There can be designated areas for it, but it will not be like cigarettes where you can smoke walking down the street.

9. Monitored THC levels in the weed - No insanely strong stuff

These are just 9, and I'm sure there's more that I'm missing, but this is the optimal way to go about legalizing the product and actually benefiting from doing so.

Conclusion

I didn't expect this to be 2000 words, but there's a lot I think we ignore when looking at the subject. Keep in mind the government operates to help their citizens. If the government receives no gain from something, odds are, the people do not either.

Would legalizing possession help the economy? Very unlikely given the nature of the drug world. There are tons of benefits to legalization, and I am well aware of them, but it's not as easy as looking at potential monetary gain from one item and ignoring the products similar to it that are currently legal.

I'm not against the search to learn more about the topic. I just feel there is no baseline for a market such as this. We have the Netherlands which has an interesting system but I have yet to find a study that has looked at the economic impact from a large scale point of view, instead of just looking at the revenue generated from it.

TL;DR Don't be lazy.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2012, 03:46:23 pm by douchedouchedouche » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2012, 03:36:46 pm »

http://m.lvsun.com/news/2001/feb/16/jessica-williams-found-guilty-in-deaths-of-six-tee/
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2012, 03:44:30 pm »

tl;dr
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2012, 03:46:35 pm »

tl;dr

Fine, added one for you.
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2012, 05:06:57 pm »

hmmmm

"Nobody needs medical mari juana more than the people who are trying to stop medical mari juana."
-Joe Rogan


Sad, sad world.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2012, 05:20:15 pm by Keihan » Report Spam   Logged


between the 3 of them or how ever many where there one of them could of got the gun and pointed it at him and told him to gtfo. Its that simple he would of left no one raped murdered lives saved so on and so forth daugher be eating her captain crunch the next morning
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2012, 05:22:07 pm »

I knew you were going to quote an Economist like Joe Rogan!
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« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2012, 05:29:12 pm »

Well, the point is it shouldn't be an economist debate. It should be about the human experience.

Here's a situation:


You're on an island with 50 other people. Some of you want to smoke MJ, but one guy says he doesn't want you to smoke MJ or he'll lock you in a cage (essentially today's society - smoke weed, get caught, go to jail).

You would have to get rid of that person somehow. Forget the economist discussion. This economy is based on money with no backing. Things can't keep going on like they are. It's bound to change somehow.
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between the 3 of them or how ever many where there one of them could of got the gun and pointed it at him and told him to gtfo. Its that simple he would of left no one raped murdered lives saved so on and so forth daugher be eating her captain crunch the next morning
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« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2012, 05:31:09 pm »

The human experience? You've got to be kidding me. I suppose you'd like to go back to the trade and barter system too?
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« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2012, 05:39:22 pm »

No, I'm not kidding you. You have a right to your body. Nobody owns you.

Therefore, you should be able to do w/e you want with your body as long as you aren't harming another person. You should be able to smoke MJ, and use other drugs like her0in, alcohol, w/e your preference. You should be able to eat potato chips and ice cream. You should be able to sell your body for sex and not get arrested.

I don't recommend these things, but you should have the right.




" Keep in mind the government operates to help their citizens"
I don't think they have our best interest at all times.
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between the 3 of them or how ever many where there one of them could of got the gun and pointed it at him and told him to gtfo. Its that simple he would of left no one raped murdered lives saved so on and so forth daugher be eating her captain crunch the next morning
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« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2012, 05:41:31 pm »

You totally missed the point of this. If you hurt the economy, you hurt people. If you legalize marijuana, you hurt the economy, ergo, you are hurting people.
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« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2012, 05:48:13 pm »

No, I understand your point, but it's still unnecessary for MJ to be illegal. It's a great medicinal tool. Most of these pharmaceutical drugs are disgusting.. some of them have very similar effects to her0in, ****, speed, etc.. (oxy cotton, adderall, just to name a few). Should we have regulations on driving while under the influence of these?


There is a lot of filth that helps the economy. That doesn't mean all of it is okay. With your logic, you're right, there is no money in a cure, there is only money in a temporary solution. That is why doctors come up with these pharmaceutical drugs that help to relieve symptoms, but also to keep them coming back, so they can keep the machine going...

The world's a business, so I know exactly what you mean. It's all just very wrong to me and I can't see MJ being legalized for a long, long time. I used to think maybe it would be legalized in the next 5-10 years, but now I'm not very sure about that.
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between the 3 of them or how ever many where there one of them could of got the gun and pointed it at him and told him to gtfo. Its that simple he would of left no one raped murdered lives saved so on and so forth daugher be eating her captain crunch the next morning
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« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2012, 06:24:45 pm »



That girl hadn't slept in 2 days though. The amount in her system wasn't enough to cause impairment but they had changed the law shortly before that said trace amounts would be considered impaired. They made an example of her. Also why did they have teens on a damn freeway. I don't feel safe on the freeways here even in a car. lol
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« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2012, 06:51:11 pm »

Meh, not sure. Yeah, I think its BS to have them on the side of a major hwy too.

Also, I remember one time while we were stones and my boy was driving. We were stopped at a light and a car pulled up next to us.  My other boy stuck his head out the passenger side and said "wus up?1" to the guy next to us.  He freaked out and gassed it.  My friend that was driving also gassed it not realizing we were still at a red light and we came within inches of hitting an on-coming car that would have surely killed us.  Mind you, my friend was A-B honor roll student and has 2 degrees now, so I know he's not an incompetent idiot, but because we were stoned he wasn't thinking clearly and we nearly escaped death.
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« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2012, 07:11:25 pm »

Meh, not sure. Yeah, I think its BS to have them on the side of a major hwy too.

Also, I remember one time while we were stones and my boy was driving. We were stopped at a light and a car pulled up next to us.  My other boy stuck his head out the passenger side and said "wus up?1" to the guy next to us.  He freaked out and gassed it.  My friend that was driving also gassed it not realizing we were still at a red light and we came within inches of hitting an on-coming car that would have surely killed us.  Mind you, my friend was A-B honor roll student and has 2 degrees now, so I know he's not an incompetent idiot, but because we were stoned he wasn't thinking clearly and we nearly escaped death.

Chain reaction of stupidity starting with the first friend who yelled out the window.

My friend almost ran a red light/almost made a turn into a fence one night when he was driving high. My roommate was in the passenger seat and I was in the back.




Let's smoke weed, he said.

I'm a good driver, he said.


fail


Speaking from MY experiences personally, and I don't recommend people drive under the influence of anything, but I have driven while high 4 or 5 times... every time I drove safe and sound. I would drive closer to the speed limit and pay much more attention to signs and passerby. I'm a pretty good driver in the first place, but I just drove smoother while high.

Being too high can **** a lot of people up, though. Don't drive while intoxicated, noobs.
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between the 3 of them or how ever many where there one of them could of got the gun and pointed it at him and told him to gtfo. Its that simple he would of left no one raped murdered lives saved so on and so forth daugher be eating her captain crunch the next morning
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« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2012, 07:24:20 pm »

Of course it was a chain reaction, but I'm fairly certain that a fully sober person would have kept his foot on the pedal. 

Oh, and my friend didn't yell. He did the head-nod in an upward motion and said it.  The other dude was around in his 40's and was prolly scared shitless. Cheesy
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