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« on: October 02, 2013, 09:22:24 pm »

Best, worst Week 5 matchups

Now that the season is about a quarter of the way over, we start to understand which teams are good and which are bad. Furthermore, we have a better understanding of why some teams are good and some, such as the one in Jacksonville, are so bad.

At Football Outsiders, the key efficiency metric DVOA (explained here) stands for defense-adjusted value over average. However, for the first four weeks we were basing matchups just on VOA, as it was too early to apply opponent adjustments at any strength. Now we can do that, making the "D" a factor that is essential to studying this game.

After all, the NFL is a matchup league. What works against one opponent may not against another.

When Peyton Manning threw seven touchdowns against Baltimore in Week 1, we could only naively assume the Ravens were one of the worst pass defenses in football. But with more data the past three weeks -- Baltimore has allowed two total touchdowns (one passing) since -- we can see that the Ravens (No. 12 in defensive DVOA and No. 16 against the pass) are not that bad.

We also are quickly learning that Denver is just that good. Manning has 16 touchdown passes in four games, which is already more than 155 teams have had in a full 16-game season since 1988. As I mentioned last week, if you have Denver receivers on your fantasy team, start them every week. If you don't have them, maybe trade for one if you are in need.

Denver's big four pass-catchers are all nearly on pace for 1,000 yards: Demaryius Thomas (1,592), Eric Decker (1,360), Wes Welker (1,064) and Julius Thomas (948). When you look at the remaining schedule, it's not out of question this could be the first offense in NFL history with four 1,000-yard receivers.

Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 5:



Quarterbacks

Philip Rivers, (plus-5 points)



Rivers did not need to be "fixed" as some suggested this offseason. He just needed to stop imploding late in games after strong starts. This season, Rivers has been very good in almost every quarter, completing 73.9 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. It's a late start in Oakland this week because of baseball, but that's still a tasty matchup (No. 28 pass defense) no matter when they kick it off. As with Denver, when you look at the AFC schedule, it's hard not to see Rivers as a strong No. 1 quarterback option in fantasy this season.



Andrew Luck (minus-5 points)



Seattle boasts the league's No. 1 pass defense. It already has decimated Colin Kaepernick, though at least Luck will be at home. Matt Schaub had some success early, but once Seattle tightened up on his receivers, we know what he did late in the game. The Colts are trying to run the ball more, which would be smart this week even though Seattle is No. 10 in rush defense. Last season, Luck played five games against top-10 pass defenses. His fantasy point production was 9.3, 28.9, 5.1, 16.4 and 15.7. Seattle is allowing 12.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year.


Running backs



Chris Johnson (plus-2 points)



Johnson has 84 carries this year and none have gone longer than 23 yards. The Chiefs are quickly earning a reputation for their defense, but the run defense is last in the league thanks in part to playing the Eagles. Johnson can have a quality fantasy day by breaking off one long scoring run. With Ryan Fitzpatrick in for Jake Locker at quarterback, the Titans may be wise to lean on Johnson more this week.



Daryl Richardson (plus-2 points)



The St. Louis Rams are off to their worst rushing start in team history with 189 yards and zero touchdowns. Richardson had just 16 yards on 12 carries against the 49ers. However, let's give him one more shot with the Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 29 rush defense) coming to town. Need I say more?

DeAngelo Williams (minus-2 points)



Carolina is coming off a bye week, but this is a tough matchup in Arizona. The Cardinals just held Doug Martin, a better runner than Williams, to 45 yards on 27 carries and Arizona's run defense ranks No. 3 in DVOA and No. 3 in yards per carry allowed. They have allowed only one rushing touchdown, while Williams has yet to find the end zone in 2013.



Fred Jackson (minus-2 points) and C.J. Spiller (minus-1 point)



This is just a reminder about the generally poor quality of Thursday night games. Buffalo is on the road, Jackson has a MCL sprain, Spiller is scoreless and the Browns are No. 6 against the run. Start both Buffalo RBs at your own risk, though with all the running back problems around the league, you may not have a better option.


Wide receivers



Hakeem Nicks (plus-1 point)



I can feel the frustration of Nicks owners after three catches for 33 yards in the past two games combined, but help is on the way in the form of Philadelphia's 30th-ranked pass defense. After 16 targets for Victor Cruz last week, expect Nicks to share in some of the wealth in Week 5. Hopefully Eli Manning can learn something from what big brother Peyton and others have done to the Eagles this season.



Reggie Wayne (minus-1 point)



These may not be the Peyton Manning-led Colts who always kept Wayne lined up on the left, but you can expect Richard Sherman to cover him quite a bit around the field. Wayne will not be shut down like Anquan Boldin (one catch for seven yards) was in Week 2, but as with the Luck projection, you should not expect a big day.


Tight ends



Jordan Cameron (minus-1 point)



Here's the second warning for Thursday night's often sloppy brand of football. Besides, can Brian Hoyer continue to play this well for Cleveland? Even if he does, Cameron will probably still have a solid game, but his touchdown per reception rate (16.7 percent) is completely unsustainable.


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