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« on: October 02, 2013, 09:32:39 pm »

Jennings to contribute Sunday?

Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden didn't practice today and talk is that his hamstring injury might be pesky enough to keep him out of Sunday night's absurdly late game against the San Diego Chargers. On the flipside, fullback Marcel Reece, originally thought to be out at least a couple weeks, practiced and could be ready for Sunday's tilt. At the moment, the only certain thing in the Raiders backfield is that backup Rashad Jennings is healthy and ready to go in case the other two aren't.

Jennings had a solid performance last week in support of McFadden, gaining 45 yards on 15 carries and catching eight passes for 71 yards. The YPC wasn't fantastic but the big workload is probably what was most impressive. Jennings can be trusted by the Raiders offensive decision-makers, even when McFadden and Reece are out of the ballgame.

Reece hasn't posted huge rushing numbers thus far this season but if he's able to play, his contributions could also rise without DMC in the fold. He, like Jennings, is a receiving threat out of the backfield so it won't be surprising if he has a good day in that area as well. The Chargers haven't allowed a running back to score a touchdown this year though they are 25th in terms of rushing yards allowed. Terrelle Pryor will start Sunday and that fact could mean interesting things for Jennings and/or Reece, as Pryor brings a more dynamic element to the offense.

Fantasy expert Christopher Harris has more on why Jennings is a strong add in Week 5 and possibly beyond.
"For the second straight year, Jennings finds himself the target of desperate fantasy owners. Last season, Jennings seemed the logical inheritor once Maurice Jones-Drew got hurt, and indeed he started six games for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Unfortunately, he played badly, including a 2.8 yards-per-carry mark and shoulder and concussion problems. Sunday, he ran acceptably well after Darren McFadden and Marcel Reece left the Raiders' game because of injury. As of this writing, it's unknown whether McFadden will return for Week 5, but given his injury history, it's easy to imagine he won't. Jennings is a big kid with some straight-ahead pop, and while he's nobody's long-term solution as a RB, he should probably be added in all leagues."








Reason to believe Pead could emerge?

The question in Earth City, Mo. and throughout Rams fandom is who will be carrying the ball for St. Louis this Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Daryl Richardson said on Twitter that he would not be starting this Sunday's game. Second-year man Isaiah Pead, rookie Benny Cunningham, and rookie Zac Stacy are the other Rams backfield options going into this week. Of the three, Pead likely has the most talent and will get the most opportunity to succeed. Is this the week Pead emerges?

The safe answer to the Pead question is no. He was inactive last week, presumably as a healthy scratch. He's supposed to play in Week 5 and would be the most likely to start if Richardson is correct. He's carried the ball seven times this year for a mere 21 yards. One would think someone has to break out against the worst defense in the league. Even if Richardson doesn't start he could still have the best game of the four. His 114 yards on 42 carries as a starter isn't great but we don't know if any of the three behind him could do better. Richardson's been limited because of a foot injury and the run game isn't the only part of the offense that's struggled.

The undrafted Cunningham obviously has some potential but there's no reason to believe he'll break out. Stacy will likely be active again (he played one snap in the 49ers game) but again is a long shot to see the field.

If not this week against the Jags, the cause could really look hopeless for the young backfield's chances this year. Here's fantasy expert Eric Karabell with more on why one should be wary when it comes to the Rams backfield.



How valuable is healthy 'Hawks O-line?

The Seattle Seahawks are 4-0 on the season and are regarded as the prohibitive favorite to come out of the NFC this year. This week the Seahawks take on the Indianapolis Colts on the road. Depending on the sportsbook, the Seahawks are anywhere from 1-point to 3-point favorites. How much is that number and movement dictated by the injuries to the offensive line?

Left tackle Russell Okung was placed on IR with a designation to return two weeks ago because of a toe injury; the earliest he'll be available to play is November 16 against the Vikings. All-Pro center Max Unger missed last week's game with a triceps injury and is listed as questionable for this week. Finally, right tackle Breno Giacomini missed last week with a knee injury, underwent surgery on Monday, and now has an uncertain timetable.

The health of the o-line could be a huge key in evaluating what team to choose when betting against the spread or even straight-up. Betting insider Evan Abrams places significant value on the trio's presence.

"Okung and Unger together have a value of around 1.5 to 2 points," Abrams said. "If all three are out for Week 5, I see a value of a full 2 points, which is surprising because of their talented QB and RB combination."

Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll kept using the word "surviving" to describe the state of his offensive line, not a great sign. The Seahawks are obviously hopeful that the backups continue to improve as game-time reps increase. Michael Bowie, Paul McQuistan, and Lemuel Jeanpierre either filled in or switched roles last week against the Texans.

Keep an eye on if Unger and Giacomini will be able to play. We saw what a fully healthy Seattle offensive line did in the early weeks of the season. The absences further solidify that the Seahawks, at an elite level already, could be even better.



Any hope for Bills RBs in Week 5?

The short week for the Thursday night game participants is always unkind, especially to those with injuries. A unit that will be hit especially hard this week is the Buffalo Bills backfield. C.J. Spiller (ankle) and Fred Jackson (sprained MCL) are both hobbled and their statuses for tomorrow's tilt against the Cleveland Browns is uncertain. What can we glean about their collective productivity in the pivotal Week 5 game?

The biggest confounding factor to any Bills RB success Thursday is the strength of the Browns run defense. The 79.0 rush yards per game allowed rates out as 4th-best in the NFL and they're the only NFL team thus far not to have given up a gain of 15 yards or longer on the ground. Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson struggled against this D. So even a healthy, more explosive Spiller/Jackson duo may not have been able to make serious dents in the defense.

Spiller has gained 230 yards on 3.5 yards per carry while Jackson has accumulated 256 yards on 5.3 yards per carry. Jackson has had over 10 fantasy points in each of the first four weeks.

It's still up in the air how much of either we'll see though the early returns are that both will suit up. Tashard Choice could get the start but he's not expected to do much. Whatever permutation is used, we have to think the Bills won't gain more than the 80 yards on the ground the Browns are allowing.




Will any Jets WRs step up?

The New York Jets are hurting at the wide receiver position. Veteran Santonio Holmes could miss up to a month because of a hamstring injury, and fellow starting wideout Stephen Hill suffered a concussion in last Sunday's game and is not expected to play Monday night against the Atlanta Falcons. With the starters out and rookie quarterback Geno Smith at the helm, can any other wideouts step up?
Jeremy Kerley and Clyde Gates are expected to start the game at wide receiver, while rookie Ryan Spadola will be slotted in a reserve role. The Jets also signed veteran David Nelson, formerly of the Buffalo Bills, this week.

Kerley's nine catches thus far are the most among non-starting wideouts, and he has averaged 15.0 yards per catch en route to 135 yards on the season. He actually has been targeted two fewer times than Gates so far, with Smith throwing his way 14 times on the season.

Gates, a third-year receiver, has caught only six balls this year, but did catch all three of his targets last week. He should get more than three targets this week and thus could have an opportunity to get upwards of 60 yards for only the third time in his career.

Spadola has been targeted six times in his young NFL career but has not caught a pass yet. Nelson can't be expected to do much with little preparation but averaged about 11 yards per reception and caught eight touchdowns in his first two years (2010 and 2011) with the Bills.

Tight end Kellen Winslow remains in the mix and probably will be the top receiving target this week. He caught six balls for 73 yards last week and the Falcons have allowed a touchdown to tight ends in three of their first four games, though they've only allowed 42.5 yards to TEs. Winslow has been targeted the second-most on the team and has the most receptions at 16. Lastly, tight end Jeff Cumberland is in play; he has caught the only four balls that have been thrown his way this season, and one was for a touchdown. He may see more looks.

Do keep in mind that the Falcons have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points league-wide to receivers. It stands to reason at least one of the Jets can have a big game. Because he'll be the No. 1 and has had the most efficient production thus far, we're going to give the nod to Kerley here.



Is Jeffery hurting Marshall's output?

You know that you are a high-end NFL receiver when you "only" have seven catches for 79 yards and no scores. That's how it is for Brandon Marshall, though, because he set the bar so high last season with 118 receptions for 1,508 yards and 11 TDs, all of which are career-high numbers. Fantasy owners likely wouldn't have had a problem with his Week 4 outing against the Detroit Lions, if it hadn't come on the heels of a 5-catch, 52-yard performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. Is this relative downswing in production a trend or a fluke?

Well, we have seen Alshon Jeffery's production jump the past two weeks -- 7 catches for 51 yards in Week 3, 5 catches for 107 yards and 1 TD in Week 4 -- from which one could infer that QB Jay Cutler is looking toward Jeffery over Marshall, since the latter draws far more defensive attention. However, both wideouts had eight targets in Week 3 and Marshall's 14 targets in Week 4 outpaced the 11 seen by Jeffery. The truth is that Jeffery's maturation as a pro should make things easier on Marshall, because opposing defenses will have to pay attention to two WRs for a change, not just Marshall.

As for expectations for Marshall going forward, we should just write off the past couple of games as the fluky ebb and flow of an NFL season. Elite receivers like Marshall will produce elite stats more often than not, regardless of the matchup, but the fact that the Bears have some choice matchups on their upcoming schedule makes it even more likely that we'll see big output from Marshall (as well as Cutler and Jeffery) sooner than later:




Could QB change help CJ?

Chris Johnson has continued to be an up-and-down fantasy producer this season, as he hit the 90-yard rushing mark twice before bottoming out in Week 4 with just 21 yards on 15 carries. We shouldn't be surprised that he hasn't scored a touchdown, since he totaled just 10 the past two seasons and the Titans have Jackie Battle and Shonn Greene on the roster to chip in at the goal line. However, it is a bit surprising that he has been phased out as a pass-catcher.

He caught at least 43 passes in each of his first four seasons and caught at least 50 twice (36 in 2012), but he has just four catches in four games thus far. In fact, Johnson has only been targeted five times, which is by far his lowest mark after four games in a season (14, 21, 14, 21, 16). It was hard to read into his late-season production in 2012 after Dowell Loggains took over as offensive coordinator for the final five games, though he did only catch three passes in the final three games.

Still, it appears that Loggains prefers to hand the rock off to Johnson, rather than dump it off to him, which further damages his fantasy value, especially in PPR leagues. Not that CJ?K cares. However, it's fair to wonder whether the shift from Jake Locker to the weaker-armed Ryan Fitzpatrick will force Loggains to reconsider his tactic and dump the ball off to Johnson more often in the coming weeks.




Big week in store for Falcons D?

The Atlanta Falcons defense has been left on the waiver wire in fantasy leagues so far this season -- 8.3 percent ownership, currently -- and rightly so. Only six defenses have scored fewer than the 13 points the Falcons have put up after four games. Plus, only three teams have posted fewer than the seven sacks generated by the Falcons thus far, and they have only forced five turnovers.

However, for fantasy owners who passed on high-end defenses on draft day in order to stream waiver-wire pickups weekly based on matchups, they make for a mighty fine roster addition for Week 5 against the New York Jets.

The Jets offense already has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses this season, in large part because Geno Smith has been a turnover machine. Only Eli Manning has tossed more interceptions than Smith's eight and Ben Roethlisberger is the only quarterback with more than Smith's three lost fumbles. He's also been sacked 14 times this season (third most in the NFL).

Now, to make matters even worse for the Jets (and more enticing for the Falcons), the Jets are expected to play without their top two wideouts, as Santonio Holmes recovers from a strained hamstring and Stephen Hill a concussion. That could force the Jets to lean on their rushing attack, but that actually feeds into the one strength we've seen from the Falcons D thus far, as they rank sixth against the run, having allowed only 92.3 yards per game on the ground.




Can Woodhead's role increase?

We have seen Danny Woodhead's production increase each week this season, peaking in Week 4 with 32 yards on five rushes and 54 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions. With 20 catches over his past three games, Woodhead has become a viable flex option for fantasy teams in leagues that grant a point per reception. Can we expect Woodhead to maintain this pace or even improve?

Much of that will depend on whether the San Diego Chargers offense can continue to move the ball up and down the field. Thus far this season, only the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans are averaging more first downs per game than the Chargers, who are averaging 23.3 per game. This is highly relevant to Woodhead, because he has done most of his damage as a rusher on first downs. In fact, 12 of his 19 rushes have come on first downs. For what it's worth, their Week 5 opponent, the Oakland Raiders, have allowed a middle-of-the-pack 19.8 first downs per game.

Woodhead isn't solely used on first downs, of course. Six of his rushes have come on second downs, and he has been targeted as a receiver consistently on first downs (11), second downs (Cool and third downs (Cool. In the end, it would not be the least bit surprising to see Woodhead's role continue to increase as the season progresses, especially if Ryan Mathews continues to sport a poor yards-per-carry averaged (3.5).

Of course, Woodhead's success will remain tied directly to whether Philip Rivers can continue to roll as well as he has during the first four games under new coach Mike McCoy:




Is Arian Foster "back"?

Houston Texans fans were concerned and fantasy owners were skeptical about what to expect from Arian Foster this season after a back injury lingered all summer and into the preseason, at which point a hamstring injury limited him further. Despite the preseason issues, Foster looked pretty good the first three games of the regular season. However, Sunday against the stout Seattle Seahawks D, Foster went off for 102 rushing yards, while pulling in six passes for another 69 yards and a score. His 33 touches dwarfed his previous season-high workload of 24 touches in Week 1. Does this mean that Foster is "back"? Coach Gary Kubiak hinted Monday that may be the case.

“I would say that last week in practice, I saw the same guy that I saw last year. His practice was excellent and it carried over into the game. I thought he played extremely well," Kubiak told reporters ."Obviously, he played a lot more yesterday than he has in the past. He was a factor. He accounted for almost 180 yards of offense when you put his receiving and his rushing together. I was very impressed but I saw it coming last week. You could see it.”

Those fantasy owners who remain wary of Foster's body breaking down may want to sell high -- especially with another tough test this weekend against the San Francisco 49ers -- but right now it looks like he is ready to resume his typical high-end workhorse role in the Texans offense. The side effect of that is that Ben Tate's usage likely will become even more sporadic. He still had seven carries Sunday for an impressive 44 yards (6.3 YPC), but he had exactly nine carries each of the first three games. Tate remains the best RB handcuff in Fantasyland, but he's not going to be usable, even as a flex option, unless Foster goes down.




Play-action bread-n-butter for Chiefs?

Part of the reason the Kansas City Chiefs tore up the New York Giants Sunday was their success on play-action passes. Per ESPN Stats & Information, Alex Smith connected on six of his 10 play-action passes for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the game. In his first three games this season, Smith was just eight for 18 with no TDs and an average of just 5.2 yards per pass. Can Smith parlay the success we saw Sunday into Week 5's tilt with the Tennessee Titans?

They will have a pretty stout defense to deal with as they attempt to establish their rushing attack in order to set up the play action. During three of the Titans' first four games, they held the New York Jets to 91 yards (4.0 YPC), San Diego Chargers to 109 yards (3.8 YPC) and the Pittsburgh Steelers to 31 yards (2.1 YPC). However, the Houston Texans went off for 172 yards (6.1 YPC) in the Titans' lone loss this season.

The Chiefs' Jamaal Charles is fully capable of racking up Arian Foster-like production, even against a good defense. However, he only averaged 3.6 yards on his 18 carries Sunday. Despite that factor, the play action still worked against the hapless Giants D. Perhaps it was more the struggling Giants defense, which allowed multiple touchdown passes after play-action fakes for the first time since Week 16 of 2010, than Smith and company finding a bread-and-butter play they can use every week.

In other words, for all of the success Smith can offer the Chiefs on the field, he offers little in the way of reliable fantasy upside -- this week and beyond. The Chiefs can win against the Titans in Week 5, but that may not be reflected in useful stats from their quarterback.



Can Bills WRs get by CB Haden?

The Cleveland Browns' secondary limited Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton to 23-of-42 passing for 206 yards and an interception on Sunday. The entire unit played well, but it was cornerback Joe Haden who had the primary duties of slowing down A.J. Green, who was limited to just seven catches and 51 yards, despite being targeted 15 times. Here is how ESPN Bengals reporter Coley Harvey summed up the battle.

"Browns cornerback Joe Haden and Bengals receiver A.J. Green have been going against one another since they were in college playing in the SEC at Florida and Georgia, respectively. By now, they know each other's tendencies and nuances," he noted. "In this latest matchup, though, it was Haden who got the better of Green, locking him down and making it difficult for Dalton to complete passes in Green's direction. When Haden wasn't batting away one of his two passes, he was typically right in Green's face, forcing an overthrow, or hitting him as soon as he caught the ball, limiting Green's yards after the catch."

It will be interesting to see how Browns defensive coordinator Ray Horton utilizes Haden Thursday evening against the Buffalo Bills. Their No. 1 wideout is Steve Johnson, but he has been working primarily out of the slot this season, In fact, 22 of the 29 targets he had in the first three games came with him lining up in the slot. Will Haden slide down to shadow Johnson in the slot?

What about covering emerging rookie Robert Woods, who broke out with four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on Sunday? He's run the vast majority of his routes on the outside (84 of 105 snaps in the first three games), where Haden spends most of his time.

Either way, Johnson can't do much worse than the minus-1 yard he racked up on his lone catch in Week 4. Clearly, though, both Johnson and Woods will have their work cut out in attempting to rack up fantasy-worthy stats in Week 5 against what quickly is proving to be a tough Browns secondary.




« Last Edit: October 02, 2013, 09:56:23 pm by Mario Lopez » Report Spam   Logged



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