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ESPN Insider

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Author Topic: ESPN Insider  (Read 449 times)
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2013, 12:34:20 pm »

Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Chiefs minus-3

Public consensus pick: 82 percent picked Chiefs



Public perception: This line was Titans minus-1 in the advance line at the LVH SuperBook before the Week 4 games were played. Jake Locker's hip injury swung the Chiefs to favorite status but I think the public would have been on them anyway due to their 4-0 start, as evidenced by the overloaded support even as the line has gone to Chiefs minus-3.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps were also happy to bet the Chiefs laying less than a field goal, but have backed off since. If this goes to 3.5, many will buy back on the Titans, who will also be a popular teaser play.

Tuley's Take: This is the first of six home underdogs, the same total as last week. I don't like the Titans enough to make them an official play as I think the Chiefs are the better team on both sides of the ball. Plus, we're not getting enough points here.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Titans)



Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins minus-3

Public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Ravens



Public perception: This pretty much shows that as well as the Dolphins are playing so far this season, the public isn't ready to embrace them yet. And even though the Ravens let down the public last week against the Bills, the public is more willing to forgive them and back them again.

Wiseguys' view: Similar to the Chiefs-Titans game, the sharps are glad to back the Dolphins under a field goal as they can certainly forgive them for losing at New Orleans on Monday night. Tuley's Take: I'm not willing to write off the Ravens just yet. They were their own worst enemy against the Bills (Joe Flacco was intercepted five times), and if they don't take care of the ball against the Dolphins, they'll meet the same fate. But I think they will do enough to get the win here, or (hopefully) at worst get the push in a close game.

The pick: Ravens




Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams

Spread: Rams minus-11.5

Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Rams



Public perception: The public is dying to fade the Jaguars as they're 0-4 both SU and ATS, and pretty much regarded as the worst team in the league this year (and maybe in many years). But they're also leery about laying this many points with the Rams, who are also 0-4 ATS. As a result, no one has had a good feeling from backing them yet this year, so that's why the action is pretty split at the current number.

Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys were quick to snap up the Jaguars at higher numbers. Double-digit underdogs are 5-2 ATS this year, so most sharps are in dog-or-pass mode.

Tuley's Take: Someone on Twitter said I bet the Jaguars blindly, but believe me that's not the case. I don't want to back them at all, but when I see a line inflated like this I can't resist. I mean, this is the Rams after all -- the team that looked lost against the 49ers a week ago and hasn't covered a spread -- yet they're expected to win this game by two touchdowns? I don't think so. Jacksonville also gets WR Justin Blackmon back from suspension and hopefully that opens up the offense a little for Blaine Gabbert and takes double-coverage away from Cecil Shorts.

The pick: Jaguars




Matchup: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals minus-1

Public consensus pick: 80 percent picked Patriots



Public perception: The Patriots' Sunday night win over the Falcons looks like it was enough to bring bettors back to their side after many had tried fading them in that game. The public also hasn't embraced the Bengals as an elite team, or certainly not on the level of the Pats.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps have been on the same side as the public here in pushing this to pick-em status, and it could very well lead to a change in the favorite.

Tuley's Take: I do like this Cincinnati team, but just like last week when I had New England against Atlanta, I can't resist taking the Patriots getting any sort of points. The Bengals only being able to get two field goals in their 16-7 loss to the Browns last week is a warning sign. Even if the Patriots can't hold them down that well, they should be able to outscore them.

The pick: Patriots




Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Seahawks minus-2.5

Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Seahawks



Public perception: The Seattle bandwagon keeps growing as the Seahawks are both 4-0 SU and ATS, and especially now as they've rallied to win (and cover) two road games that looked lost. The public likes the Colts, too, but not enough to keep the majority from laying this low number.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps grabbed the Colts when the line opened plus-3 (even money) and plus-3 (flat, meaning the standard minus-110), but are now staying away.

Tuley's Take: This is home dog No. 2 I'm going to pass on. The Seahawks are the complete package and it's hard to go against them with the dog getting so few points (as ended up being the case with the Texans last week).

The pick: Pass (pool play: Seahawks)




atchup: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers minus-7

Public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Packers



Public perception: One of the trends you're most likely to hear this week is that Aaron Rodgers is 5-0 ATS off a bye since replacing Brett Favre. The public, which loves to back the Pack anyway, also loves to bet teams off a bye even though overall it's close to a 50-50 proposition.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are more likely to use Green Bay as a teaser play, just asking them to win straight-up, especially with this line being so high for a key divisional battle as the Packers are 1.5 games behind the Lions and Bears in the NFC North.

Tuley's Take: I took a lot of flak two weeks ago when I wrote that the Lions have as many weapons as the Packers, but I'll stick with that assessment given Detroit's offensive attack featuring Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, among others. This should be another shootout as predicted with the over/under of 54, and getting a touchdown head start with the Lions is enticing.

The pick: Lions




Matchup: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

Spread: Saints minus-1

Public consensus pick: 77 percent picked Saints



Public perception: This line was around pick-em and then Bears minus-1, but the public along with the wiseguys have pushed the Saints to favorite status. A 4-0 start (though 3-1 ATS) will do that.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps jumped on the Saints here as, in addition to their potent offense, their defense continues to improve (No. 3 in the NFC in yards allowed). But as this moves higher, the Bears will be tempting as a teaser play.

Tuley's Take: This is the first home dog I can support this week. The loss to the Lions is a concern as their offense resembles the Saints, but New Orleans doesn't always take its show on the road that well (especially outdoors on natural grass), as we saw in its non-covering 16-14 win at Tampa in Week 2. If the Bears' defense can limit the Saints like the Bucs did in that game, their offense can certainly score more than Tampa did.

The pick: Bears




Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Spread: Giants minus-2.5

Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Eagles



Public perception: The public is on the Eagle here, but we can safely assume that's because the Giants have looked so bad in starting the season both 0-4 SU and ATS.

Wiseguys' view: Both of these teams have looked eminently fadeable to wiseguys. The preferred play will likely be to tease the Eagles more than a field goal (though this is one of those cases in which teasing across zero is acceptable if you prefer the Giants plus-3.5).

Tuley's Take: One of the big surprises of the young season is the lack of offense from Eli Manning and the Giants' offense. However, for a veteran team that often starts slow and comes on late in the year and in the playoffs, the Giants have to be encouraged by the fact that if they win this game and the Cowboys lose to the Broncos, they'll be just one game out of first place in the NFC East. So while I think the Eagles are the right side, I have to pass here.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Eagles)




Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Panthers minus-2

Public consensus pick: 76 percent picked Panthers



Public perception: Here's another case of the public jumping on the team coming off its bye (Panthers). Of course, the last thing they remember seeing from Carolina was its 38-0 blowout win over the Giants in Week 3.

Wiseguys' view: Resistance from the sharps is probably the only thing keeping this line from climbing to a field goal. This is another game ripe for teaser play to get the Cardinals as a home dog of more than a touchdown.

Tuley's Take: Here's home underdog No. 2 that I like. In their only home game so far this season, the Cardinals upset a better team in the Lions, 25-21. The already good defense (No. 6 in the NFC in yards allowed -- and note the Panthers are No. 4, so going under 42.5 points might be worth a look, too) also gets a boost from the return of underrated LB Darryl Washington from suspension.

The pick: Cardinals



Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Spread: Chargers minus-4.5

Public consensus pick: 83 percent picked Chargers



Public perception: The public is backing the Chargers like they know the final score. San Diego hasn't lost backers this year as its 3-0-1 ATS. RB Darren McFadden has also been downgraded to doubtful for the Raiders, diminishing support for them even with the return of QB Terrelle Pryor.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are pretty split on this game so far, which is often the case when a line sits in the area between a field goal and a touchdown. With the kickoff moved back to 8:35 p.m. PT, this will mostly serve as background noise while wiseguys work on next week's games.

Tuley's Take: I'm passing on this home dog as I've been high on the Chargers all year (one of few teams I've been right about). Also, the Raiders haven't protected their home turf against their rival in recent years (see "Streak for the Cash" section below).

The pick: Pass (pool play: Chargers)




Matchup: Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Broncos minus-7.5

Public consensus pick: 86 percent picked Broncos



Public perception: There are reports from sports books all over that this is the highest-handle game of the week so far, and that 80-90 percent of the tickets have been on the Broncos. Even with it crossing the key number of 7, that hasn't stopped people from backing Peyton Manning and Co.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps jumped all over the opening number of Broncos minus-6, but those who missed that are staying away with it more than a touchdown. The bookmakers will probably be cheering hard for a Dallas outright win here as, in addition to the bets on the spread, this will probably be the game including on most teasers with the Broncos laying under a field goal.

Tuley's Take: This is home dog No. 3 that I like. I'm 0-3 trying to fade the Broncos and would probably stay away if this line was under a TD, but this inflated line is too much to pass up. I would feel better if the Cowboys weren't allowing more than 300 passing yards a game or if they would have been able to contain Philip Rivers and the Chargers last week, but the Broncos also allow more than 300 passing yards per game and this should be a back-and-forth shootout.

The pick: Cowboys




Matchup: Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers minus-6.5

Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked 49ers



Public perception: Action is pretty split on this game so far at ESPN PickCenter and other bet-tracking sites. I guess the 49ers' rout of the Rams a week ago didn't wash out the taste of blowout losses to the Seahawks and Colts.

Wiseguys' view: Despite both teams being 2-2, they're still considered among the league's elite and wiseguys are split on this game as well with support on both sides.

Tuley's Take: This is definitely a "take" at plus-7 if I see it, but I like the Texans in this spot anyway. Yes, they blew the game against the Seahawks last week and barely escaped in non-covering wins over the Chargers in Week 1 and the Titans in Week 2, but they're talented enough that they were seemingly in control against Seattle and can do the same thing here. In fact, they might fare better on the road right now instead of in front of the boo-birds.

The pick: Texans




Matchup: New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons minus-10

Public consensus pick: 82 percent picked Falcons



Public perception: It didn't take much for the public to turn on the Jets as they're loading up on the Falcons here and driving the line to double digits. Most people probably still remember how well Atlanta has done at home since Matt Ryan took over as quarterback, though the Falcons are down to 35-8 SU with the loss to the Patriots last week.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps generally love taking underdogs that have the better defense, so they're waiting for this line to peak before jumping on the Jets.

Tuley's Take: The higher the line gets, the more tempting it will become for yours truly. But while I took the Jaguars mainly because of not fearing that the Rams will put up a ton of points, I have no such confidence in the Jets being able to contain the Falcons.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Jets)




Streak for the Cash



When playing this contest, it's doesn't make sense to pick a lot of underdogs as you don't get any extra points for doing that. So my suggested games will usually be favorites where I haven't been able to make a strong case for the underdog.



Best bet: Chargers at Raiders. This is the game with the biggest spread on Sunday's "Streak for the Cash" menu with the Chargers minus-4.5. The Chargers have won eight of the last nine years in Oakland. And with this game moved to 11:35 p.m. ET, if you're reset to zero you can try to get back in the win column. Confidence meter: 88.9 percent

Seahawks at Colts: The Seahawks are doing everything right and I give them the edge on both sides of the ball. They can get in front early and coast to victory, or come from behind. Confidence meter: 65 percent

Bears versus Saints: This game occurs at the same time as Seahawks-Colts, but if you don't like that one, I'd suggest the Bears, even though the Saints are now the slight favorites. The Saints don't do as well outdoors -- as we saw in their only non-cover so far this season in Week 2 at Tampa. Confidence meter: 55 percent
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