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Author Topic: ESPN Insider  (Read 451 times)
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« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2013, 12:39:31 pm »

Best fantasy playoff RB matchups


With 10 weeks in the books for the 2013 fantasy football season, many owners are reaching the point where they can transition their roster moves toward selections that will give them the best chance of winning in the fantasy football playoffs.

The most difficult of these decisions will come at running back. This position has been painfully thin all season (only 11 running backs are averaging 10 or more points per game) and got even thinner last week with the announcement that Arian Foster will be having season-ending back surgery.

The lack of quality running back depth means owners will be looking to stockpile as many running backs with favorable playoff matchups before the Nov. 20 trade deadline.

This week's Fantasy Foresight article aims to offer assistance with this process via a fantasy playoff matchup primer. I color-graded each team's set of fantasy playoff matchups (defined as contests in Weeks 14 through 16) according to a variety of metric and scouting factors. A red grade indicates a very difficult matchup for the running back, a yellow grade signifies an average matchup and a green grade connotes a highly favorable matchup.

These grades are then assigned a point total, with a red rating giving zero points, a yellow rating one point and a green rating two points, thus making a higher point total more favorable for a running back.

The point totals then have been broken down into categories ranging from the most favorable (those with five matchup points) to the least favorable (the one team that ended up with zero matchup points).

Now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let's take a look at the best fantasy playoff matchups for teams.




Matchup point level: Target (five matchup points)



Teams: Green Bay, Miami


The combination of Eddie Lacy's eight points in Week 10 and the Packers' offense now being piloted by a third-string quarterback (Scott Tolzien) may have some Lacy fantasy owners thinking of throwing in the towel. That would be a huge mistake, as Green Bay will face Atlanta and Dallas (which just allowed a team record for yards in a single game) in Weeks 14 and 15 and Pittsburgh (which recently allowed the most single game yards in team history) in Week 16. Add to that the Packers' strong run-blocking, Lacy's production level on such plays and Aaron Rodgers' likely return to the lineup by that point, and it equals fantasy playoff gold for what could be a buy-low price.

Lamar Miller also likely will be available for next to nothing, after the Dolphins posted a team-record low of 2 rushing yards in the Monday night game against Tampa Bay. Miller may not offer starter-caliber upside, but there is almost certainly flex start potential, given the matchups.




Matchup point level: Favorable (four matchup points)



Teams: Arizona, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Houston, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Washington

The most intriguing candidates in this group could be the Buffalo running backs. If Week 10 is any indication, Fred Jackson (12 carries, four targets) and C.J. Spiller (eight carries, three targets) are going to operate a platoon setup from here on out. That split-carry situation may cause some fantasy owners to undervalue them, a move that would be a mistake considering they have extremely favorable matchups in Week 15 (Jacksonville) and Week 16 (Miami). The only caveat here is the Bills do face a very strong Tampa Bay run defense in Week 14, so be sure to have a workaround plan if utilizing Buffalo backs for the fantasy playoffs.

Houston is another interesting personnel situation, as Ben Tate is currently the starter but is battling four **** ribs. If he is able to gut his way through the injury, Tate will be a potential RB1 start in Week 14 (Jacksonville) and Week 15 (Indianapolis). For owners planning on leaning on Tate, be sure to pick up backup running back Dennis Johnson (owned in 1.1 percent of ESPN leagues) as a low-cost handcuff. Outside of the injury concern, the main worry in leaning on the Texans' running backs is Week 16 looks to offer a much tougher contest (Denver).

This level also offers a number of additional potential waiver wire pickups, including Andre Ellington (45.6 percent owned in ESPN leagues), Willis McGahee (17.8 percent) and Bobby Rainey (0.4 percent).




Matchup point level: Neutral (three matchup points)



Teams: Baltimore, Chicago, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, San Francisco

These teams all end up with the same matchup points total, but they take different routes to get there.

In Jacksonville's case, they have yellow-rated matchups in all of the fantasy football playoff weeks. This could mean Maurice Jones-Drew will be a solid starter for those games but it could also mean there is an upside cap that makes MJD a sell-high candidate, because he has posted three double-digit fantasy point games in the past four weeks.

In San Francisco's case, this total is reached via one red matchup (Tampa Bay in Week 15), one yellow-rated matchup (Seattle in Week 14) and one green-rated matchup (Atlanta in Week 16). Frank Gore has been about as consistent a point producer as one could want (double-digit points in all but one start) but that kind of up-and-down playoff matchup slate may make him a bit too risky for the championship tournament weeks if one of the other elite running backs can be acquired in a one-for-one trade.




Matchup point level: Caution (two matchup points)



Teams: Atlanta, Carolina, Dallas, Denver, New England, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Tennessee

If ever there was a textbook case of selling high, it would be this week for those fantasy owners with New Orleans running backs on their roster. The Saints' running-back-by-committee (RBBC) approach has been positively nerve-wracking this season, but this past Sunday saw three New Orleans ball carriers tally 18 or more fantasy points. That isn't likely to continue in general because Sean Payton is still going to use the RBBC system, but it is even less likely to recur in Weeks 14 and 16 matchups against a very tough Carolina run defense. This means sell high on Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles.

Selling high might not be an option in the near future for Stevan Ridley owners, because he faces a red-rated matchup in Week 11 (Carolina) but his owners should consider moving him because he also has red-rated matchups in Week 14 (Cleveland) and Week 16 (Baltimore).

The situation looks even worse for Le'Veon Bell owners, as he has red-rated matchups in every game for the rest of the season aside from a Week 14 matchup against Miami. Fantasy owners should get as much as they can out of whatever trade interest his 14-point total against Buffalo generates this week.




Matchup point level: Avoid (one matchup point)



Teams: Detroit, Indianapolis, Minnesota, NY Giants, NY Jets, San Diego, Seattle, St. Louis

Each of these teams has two red-rated and one yellow-rated matchup during the fantasy playoffs, so the fantasy championship odds are not in their favor.

In the case of running backs on the New York clubs, fantasy owners should keep them only if they need a big game against a green-rated defense prior to the fantasy postseason. In the Giants' case, that is Week 12 against Dallas. In the Jets' case, that is Week 13 against Miami.

For San Diego, the situation is even more daunting leading up the playoff weeks, as the Chargers have red-rated defenses on the schedule in Weeks 12 through 15. Their only respite is a Week 11 matchup against Miami, so consider selling high if Ryan Mathews or Danny Woodhead racks up quality point totals this week.




Matchup point level: Sell (zero matchup points)



Team: Oakland

Darren McFadden and Rashad Jennings haven't exactly been dominant point producers this season, and both will be hard-pressed to help fantasy teams during the playoffs because they face red-rated run defenses in all three weeks (Jets in Week 14, Kansas City in Week 15, San Diego in Week 16). The potential saving grace here is that the Raiders' schedule between now and the playoffs contains two yellow-rated matchups (Houston in Week 11, Tennessee in Week 12) and one green-rated matchup (Dallas in Week 13), so they could be somewhat helpful for owners needing flex-level production to clinch a spot in the playoffs.
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